OCTOBER 27TH, 2015
Penton's Aviation Week Network Finds Commercial Aircraft Deliveries Expected to Exceed $3 Trillion Worldwide Over Decade
WASHINGTON, Oct. 27, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — According to Penton’s Aviation Week Network’s 2016 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast, commercial aircraft deliveries are expected to exceed $3 trillion worldwide over the next 10 years. Additionally, the 10-year demand for maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) in the commercial market is expected to be $774.8 billion.
“Commercial aviation is going through some dynamic changes with unexpectedly low fuel prices, historically low interest rates, and high expectations for new aircraft deliveries disrupting traditional MRO business in the future,” said Brian Kough, Director of Forecasts & Analysis with Aviation Week Network. “Around the world, we have some regions in fleet growth phases and some regions re-fleeting. Add in changes to the traditional aftermarket business models and continued dominance by a few manufacturers and we have a fascinating market, one that’s in flux, over the next 10 years.”
The world’s in-service commercial fleet will increase from 31,700 aircraft in 2016 to almost 42,660 aircraft at the end of 2025, growing at a 3.3% annual rate, with India, China, and the Middle East projected to grow the fastest. The largest market, North America, will grow at a meager 0.6% rate (with a very high ongoing fleet replacement rate). The second largest market, Western Europe, will grow at a 2.6% rate, but will lose its second-place ranking to Asia Pacific, which will grow at 5.5%.
As mentioned, the annual commercial MRO market is expected to grow to $774.8 billion, a growth rate of 4.1%. North America will lead with $187.9 billion in requirements with an enormous re-fleeting of existing aircraft underlying the slow fleet growth. Within the MRO business, engine maintenance will be the largest MRO expense category.
The 2016 Fleet & MRO Forecasts are comprehensive, year-by-year projections that provide in-depth data through 2025, covering commercial, military, helicopter and business aviation fleets and their MRO requirements. As the most comprehensive and reliable forecasts for the global (MRO) market, industry-leading Aviation Week uses its research teams and detailed in-house aircraft databases to incorporate research, analysis and various industry leaders’ findings to produce each of the four forecasts.
Other key findings from the 2016 Commercial Fleet & MRO Forecast Market Summary include:
Asia Pacific is anticipated to take $702.7 billion in new aircraft deliveries, North America will take $614.6 billion and Western Europe will take $468.7 billion at retail book value over the decade.
When compared with the relatively meager in-service fleet growth, these numbers highlight the sizable re-fleeting campaigns in North America, as well Western Europe to a lesser degree.
More details can be found in Aviation Week’s 2016 Commercial Fleet & MRO Market Summary Report. Access to the data used to compile these forecasts is available for targeted, customizable reports. Visit http://aviationweek.com/2016Forecasts for more information.