The Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) is Boeing’s biennial assessment of the air cargo industry. Boeing uses the forecast data and analysis in developing its product strategy and in long-term business planning. The company shares this information publically to help operators, suppliers, leasing companies, and the financial community make informed decisions. The forecast summarizes the world’s major air trade markets, identifies major trends, and forecasts the future performance and development of markets and the world air freighter fleet. Below is a summary of the key findings included in the forecast. For the full Boeing World Air Cargo Forecast please visit www.boeing.com
Air cargo moving into, within, and out of the Middle East is estimated to have accounted for 7.7% of the world’s tonnage and for 6.9% of the world’s revenue tonne-kilometers during 2009.

The projected annual growth rate for the next 20 years is 4.0%. The four largest economies in the region commanded 70% of the region’s GDP in 2009. Not only have the oil exporters of the region benefited from the oil boom, but nearly all the other countries have as well.

The Middle East has historically served as a crossroad for Africa, Asia, and Europe. This role has continued, with Dubai as one of the largest re-export hubs in the world. Dubai handles approximately 70% of the air cargo traffic for the Middle East. Many goods flowing between Africa and Asia and between Europe and Asia pass through the Middle East. Currently, Europe is the Middle East’s largest trading partner.

The Middle East is starting to diversify beyond the oil industry to industrial and business development. An example is Dubai, where a long-term effort has produced an economy strong in logistics, tourism, banking, and construction. This expansion will lead to growing air cargo flows.

There also has been movement toward economic liberalization and cooperation between countries. These changes should improve the region’s investment climate and economic competitiveness. New highways and trade agreements will facilitate increased intraregional cargo flows. Middle East nations should benefit from combining their strength as trading hubs and from the growth of their own markets.

Middle East-Europe traffic

Air cargo growth between the Middle East and Europe has been strong since 1999, with the 7.8% annual growth of the smaller westbound market outpacing that of the eastbound market at 5.6%.

Trade with Europe accounted for 1,076,000 tonnes of air cargo in 2009 and represented 41% of the Middle East’s international air cargo market. Total 2009 air cargo was down in this market 14.9% from its 2008 peak, as a result of the global economic downturn. Bidirectional air cargo growth in these markets has averaged an impressive 6.5% annually between 1999 and 2009.

The large volume of air cargo that flows through the Middle East, rather than originating or terminating there, reflects the region’s importance as a cargo hub. The region also has a significant sea-air market, in which goods from South Asia arrive in the Middle East on ships and continue to Europe by air. Disaggregating this component from the total air freight moved through the region is not possible with the information systems in place today.

New infrastructure will reinforce the region’s role as a hub. Dubai’s new Al Maktoum International Airport is planned to be the world’s largest cargo hub and received its first cargo flight in the summer of 2010. The airport will be home to an integrated operation, combining different transportation modes, logistics, manufacturing, and assembly in a single free-trade zone.
Middle East-Asia traffic

In 2009, air cargo between the Middle East and Asia represented 32% of the total Middle East traffic at 839,000 tonnes.

The most significant products exported to Asia are personal effects, machinery, chemicals, flowers, and perishable foods. Imports from Asia include apparel, luxury goods, electronics, finished goods, and perishables.

In 2009, 839,000 tonnes of air cargo was shipped between Asia-Pacific and the Middle East. Liberalizing markets, economic growth, increasing numbers of direct flights, and lower costs will contribute to further expansion in this market, possibly diverting high-value shipments from surface transportation.

Middle East-North America traffic

In 2009, North America accounted for approximately 10% of the air cargo market in the Middle East at 285,500 tonnes.

Growth in the North America-to-Middle East market has been robust, with an annual growth rate of 8.3%, but this flow is still small compared to others in the Middle East region. Air cargo from the Middle East to North America has essentially remained flat for the past decade, averaging only 1% annual growth. Total Middle East-North America air cargo is down 12.5% from its 2008 peak.

Middle East forecast

Overall air cargo between the Middle East and Europe is forecast to grow at an average annual rate of 6.0% from 2009 to 2029.

Europe, as the Middle East’s largest air cargo partner, is crucial to understanding the future development of the Middle East market. The average annual growth in air exports from the Middle East to Europe has been 7.8% for 1999 to 2009. Air cargo traffic between the Middle East and Europe is at some risk from direct flights between production centers in Asia and Europe. Nevertheless, increasing local exports, coupled with the continued market in Europe for goods from Asia and Africa transshipped through the Middle East, should maintain healthy growth in this market.

Traffic from Europe to the Middle East grew at an annual rate of 5.6% between 1999 and 2009. The annual rate for the next 20 years is expected to be 5.3%. The price of oil will have a significant effect on Middle East demand for products from Europe, as will the ability of the region’s economies to diversify and become more competitive. In particular, the competiveness of local products, including perishables, fish, and textiles, together with the products of emerging light industries, will affect long-term growth prospects.

Economic activity from 1999 to 2009 was augmented by the US military presence in the region. It is therefore reasonable for growth to slow as this situation changes. The forecasts assume that existing conflicts will not widen. Any material change for the worse in the region’s political situation will significantly affect economic growth and air cargo traffic volumes.