Finnair Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Record Financial Performance:
Finnair delivered its strongest Q4 on record with comparable operating profit of €62 million, up from €48 million in Q4 2024 (which included €5 million strike impact). Full-year 2025 comparable EBIT reached €60 million despite approximately €70 million negative impact from first-half industrial actions and strike-related disruptions. Q4 revenue reached nearly €1 billion, up ~1% YoY.

Operational Recovery:
Year split into two distinct halves: difficult H1 due to collective labor agreement (CLA) negotiations causing severe operational disruptions and flight cancellations; strong H2 recovery after stabilizing operations in early July. Net Promoter Score (NPS) recovered rapidly post-disruptions, reaching 33 for total customer base in Q4 (strong for network carriers) and trending above 40 among top-tier Finnair Plus members. Passenger numbers grew 2% YoY.

Cost Management:
Lower fuel prices and weaker dollar provided ~€15 million quarterly benefit, but offset by higher regulatory costs: sustainability compliance added >€10 million per quarter, navigation/landing costs added ~€10 million per quarter. Net result showed strong cost discipline with external headwinds exceeding tailwinds, yet still achieving €50 million YoY profit improvement through operational excellence and scale benefits.

Revenue & Ancillary Growth:
Unflown ticket liability grew 7% YoY, indicating strong forward bookings momentum. Ancillary revenue exceeded €50 million in Q4 (growth moderated due to strong Q4 2024 Avios campaign comparison base). Ticket revenues and cargo remained stable.

Regional Performance:

Asia (Double-digit growth in capacity/revenue): Japan remains cornerstone – operated 25 weekly frequencies to multiple Japanese destinations in summer 2025, adding 3 weekly frequencies to Osaka for summer 2026 (total 28 weekly to Japan). Strong demand and yields.

Europe: Performed well in Q4; launching 12 new European destinations for summer 2026 (including Stavanger, Umea, Luxembourg).

North Atlantic: Soft performance with declining ASKs and load factors; represents only 9% of total ASKs; monitoring closely.

Middle East: Significant capacity/revenue decline after ceasing Copenhagen/Stockholm-Doha services under Qatar Airways partnership; represents only ~3% of ASKs.

Domestic: Softer load factor development.

Fleet & Network:

Current: A330s remain workhorses; 2 A330s returning from Qantas lease; 1 additional A350 incoming; aging fleet currently.

Narrow-body renewal: Active project to replace 15 aging aircraft (5 A319s, 10 A320s) nearing end of lifecycle; announcement expected “in coming weeks.”

New Routes: Helsinki-Bangkok-Melbourne launching winter 2026; third daily Helsinki-Bangkok flight added; Toronto route reopening summer 2026.

Balance Sheet & Capital:
Successfully issued €300 million bond pre-year-end. Cash position robust with 1.8x leverage and strong cash-to-sales ratio. CapEx: €200 million gross in 2025 (including €100+ million lease buyouts, €64 million maintenance-related). 2026 CapEx guidance: €400-500 million (~€450 million midpoint).

Shareholder Returns:
Board proposed €0.09 capital return for AGM approval.

2026 Guidance:
- Capacity growth: ~5% ASK increase (on actual 2025 flown, not originally planned capacity)
- Revenue: €3.3-3.4 billion
- Comparable operating result: €120-190 million
- Note: 10% fuel price change impacts results by ~€34 million

Strategic Priorities:
Focus on core customers and travel to/from Finland while maintaining strong transfer hub position. Demonstrated profitable network carrier operations despite closed Russian airspace (3 years post-closure). Investments in AI, digitalization, new mobile app launch 2026. Enhanced employee engagement scores (measured Nov-Dec 2025). Market share in Helsinki and Europe-Asia traffic holding strong despite disruptions.

Competitive Environment:
New Middle East-Helsinki competition expected (minimal impact given 3% ASK allocation, seasonal Dubai route). Mitigating with third Bangkok daily flight and strong connectivity (70% Helsinki arrivals connect onward).